Initial publication
The first dated, ticker-matched short thesis or follow-up in the database for each publisher and company. Secondary index dates and archive timestamp proxies are labeled in the trade list. Earlier reports may be missing.
PUBLIC BEARISH RESEARCH · CONTRARIAN BACKTEST
Did the short thesis hold up?
Imagine buying $1,000 of stock two weeks after each publisher’s first report on a company. Rank publishers by the resulting one and two year stock returns, then inspect every hypothetical trade and its source report.
Loading report and price history…
Lower long P&LBetter outcome for the bearish thesis
Higher long P&LWorse outcome for the bearish thesis
Equal $1,000 tradesEach company counts once per publisher
01 / RANKINGS
Publisher scorecard
Ranked by average long P&L per completed trade. Negative values favor the short thesis.
| Rank | Publisher | Completed | Price coverage | Avg long P&L | Total long P&L | Short hit rate | Other window avg |
|---|
02 / TRADE DETAIL
Select a publisher
Each dot is one hypothetical $1,000 stock purchase. Click a dot to open the initial report.
Trade outcomes
Purchase date → long profit or loss at the selected horizon
Dots link to the initial publisher report when available. The vertical scale compresses extreme winners so smaller trades remain visible; exact dollars appear below.
Stock trades
Select a publisher to see the positions.
| Stock / initial report | Published | Bought | Buy close | Shares for $1,000 | Value at horizon | Long P&L | Report source |
|---|
03 / METHOD
What this measures
Hypothetical purchase
$1,000 divided by the first available split-adjusted closing price on or within seven calendar days after the report’s 14-day anniversary. Fractional shares are allowed.
One and two years
Value those shares at the first available close on or within seven calendar days after the purchase’s one or two year anniversary. Rankings use completed trades only; each eligible stock has equal initial dollars.
Limits
This is a long-stock thought experiment, not an actual short trade or a causal estimate. It omits dividends, fees, taxes, borrowing, delisting proceeds, and unresolved corporate actions. Price coverage is completed trades divided by trades old enough to reach that horizon. Missing prices can bias rankings.